Stock Exchange and Market Analysis
Abstract: Continuing the trading conditions set by the stock technical analysis (5), compare the investment benefits presented by the reference stochastic KD indicators for the difference analysis.
Using the previous investment and financial notes - stock technical analysis (5) trading conditions (Ref.1), we will use Dunyang as a sample ( template6_4 ) for analysis and simulation. Sampling range from 2003/01/02 to 2013/12 /23 (Ref.3), the principal amount is 2 million, and the P/E ratio is still more than 6 times and less than 3 times the post office one-year deposit interest rate (Ref.2). The trial results (Table 1) are the same. The land shows the amazing compounding effect accumulated by the long-hold stock. No matter the year of entry, it will be positively paid until the day of 2013/12/23. And the annual real-year dividend rate is much higher than the one-year deposit rate of the post office. Although there has been a loss of -60% for the time being , if you can hold the long-selling stocks in the future and wait for the cash dividends in the coming year, you will be able to pass through and become profitable.
Table 1
Next, we introduce the KD indicator as a reference factor for buying and selling. Usually when the K-index breaks through the D indicator (gold cross) as the buying time, and when it rises excessively, the K index breaks through the D index. Time (death) is the point of selling. But usually the price of gold has risen, and the death has been in the downswing. Since we do not encourage short-term operations, but based on long-term holdings, we Only use the K indicator as a reference. When the K indicator drops below 40, it starts to buy more according to the original conditions. The more you go down, the more you buy. Conversely, when the K indicator rises above 60, it starts to follow the original. The condition is sold again, and the more you go up, the more you sell. So we added the value of the K-index in the attached file ( template6_5 ) and introduced it into the conditions for buying and selling. Table 2 shows The results of the trial. We can still find any year to enter, until 2013/12/23 are positive rewards, as for the real annual dividend rate is not far from Table 1.
Table 2
In order to compare the differences between the reference K indicators, we sorted out the data in Table 3. The first condition is the original method, and the second condition is the K index reference factor. The reporting rate is high or low, but most of them. In the case of total profit, the second condition is better, but the relative temporary loss is also slightly higher.
Table 3
This trial balance is changed to Dunyang as an example. Add the K indicator as a reference for investment. If you are interested, you can use the method described in the first investment financial note-stock technical analysis (1) (Ref.4). Entering the individual stocks into their historical data and then doing the simulation analysis according to the above several variables, we will be able to have a better understanding of the stock attributes. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask for discussion, or if you have any mistakes, please feel free to correct them. Share your experience. Thank you!
The next time we will analyze the target P/E ratio in depth, we will be able to further identify the risk-lower and profitable stock picking strategy . In addition, the author's various indicators for stock analysis (moving average, RSI) , BIAS, stochastic KD line, William indicator, MACD and Bollinger band, etc.) The EXCEL spreadsheet is produced for readers' reference, and further candlestick diagrams and other technical indicators are shown on the same chart. Interested readers can refer to Ref.5. Stay tuned.
Reference (Ref):
1. Investment and financial notes - Stock technical analysis ( 5): set the annual reporting rate target, use Excel tools to analyze the stock investment efficiency simulation – V2.0
2. Post office deposit interest rate: Post office regular deposits of less than 10 million yuan a year fixed rate historical interest rate table ( annual interest rate)
3. Juheng.com: Historical Data of Dunyang
4. Investment and financial notes - Stock technical analysis ( 1): Taiwan stock index and individual stock historical data
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