Stock Exchange and Market Analysis
Technical Analysis (5)
Continuing the previous Stock Technical Analysis (4), let us start with an analysis of the investment benefits of individual stocks using sample ( template5_3 ) . This sample is based on Juyang (1477), based on individual stocks. Compared with the post office deposit interest rate to make a simulated trading on paper, analyze the profitability of the paper, so that it will be exempted from the dilemma of being distracted and time-consuming when working every day. The sample covers the P/E ratio, and the post office will save Interest rate, target price-to-earnings ratio of buying and selling, buy and sell target price, EPS, annual dividends and dividends, total interest, real annual interest rate, number of purchases, number of shares sold, total shareholding The total purchase cost, total selling cash profit, holding the total value of the stock market, net profit, total reporting rate and personal EPS and other fields. Today's spreadsheet 5 is explained as follows:
. Investment Amount: The total amount of investment for the initial value set at 200 million and change may increase or decrease of the field B4.
. Buy point: the start date of this spreadsheet simulation investment approach, the initial value is set to 2003/01/01, by A4 field to change it.
. Stocks PE ratio: the ratio of the closing price for the day before the day of the total EPS seasons and generally the lower the better price-earnings ratio.
. Post office deposit interest rates:
According to the postage rate announced by the post office (this column is based on the postal deposit of less than 10 million yen a year fixed interest rate as a reference value - Ref.1).
. Target PE ratio:
. Buy (<): the predetermined profit rate in x day post office deposit rate of b times the x b now take six times, can be adjusted in the L3 spreadsheet column.
. Sell (>): profit rate of the day scheduled for the post office deposit rate of x s times, x s currently take three times, you can make adjustments in the M3 column spreadsheet.
. Buy and sell target price:
. Buy: from the previous day's closing price, the target buy price-earnings ratio and price-earnings ratio to determine the day of the target buy price.
. Sell: the previous day's closing price, the target sell price-earnings ratio and price-earnings ratio to determine the day's sell target price.
EPS: The sum of the four seasons before the date (Ref.2).
. Dividends / Dividends: stocks made according to public information and to be entered.
. The total coupon: total annual allotment of cash dividends.
. Essence with interest rate: The average distribution yield based on the annual period after it has been converted into the bag with the total income and holdings.
. Buy (round lot):
The timing of the purchase should be based on the remaining funds and individual stocks to buy the target price >= the lowest price of the day, and before the opening of the day to buy the target price.
. Sell (round lot):
The timing of the sale should be based on the remaining shareholding and the equity ratio of the stock to sell the target price-earnings ratio, and hang out at the target price before the opening day.
. Shareholding (round lot): for the day of the number of shares still held shares.
. Buy ($10K): the total acquisition cost
. Sold ($10K): total cash earnings has sold it.
. Market value ($10K): the total value of shares of the market
. Profit ($10K): according to the total income and with the first two and then deducting the sum of net profit after day total acquisition cost
. Reported rate: the day of the ratio of net profit to the total cost of buying.
. Individual EPS: by the ratio of net profit and capital invested multiplied by 10.
. This spreadsheet This temporarily into the technical indicators, only the most basic concept is based on price-earnings ratio, it will be converted into an equivalent deposit rate and then compare it with the post office deposit rate as market timing. To reduce the investment risk .
The following table takes the purchase time point of the attached file ( template5_3 ) as the variable. From 2003 onwards, the annual trial opening time is used to analyze the trial results of different years.
Since Juyang has had excellent profits over the years, it can be found from the trial results that the compounding effect of the investment time will be very impressive. The reader can even find the cash profit that will be sold later plus the total interest rate. The total purchase cost has been exceeded, and the zero-cost realm has been reached. Even if the profit of the sold stock is not included, the annual dividend payout ratio of the company's annual interest rate is much higher than the one-year deposit rate of the post office. Next, we will choose another Sinosteel ( template6_3 ) that has been profitable in recent years for comparison. The list is as follows:
Profits from the investment of the above two stocks can be found to be very different. On behalf of stock picking, we need to find future long-term growth stocks. For example, in the second half of 2011, Sinosteel’s profit decline caused the stock to continue to decline. This watch also shows that it is not suitable for buying signals and there will be no entry action after 2012. In addition, comparing the rise and fall of individual stocks with the reporting rate, it can be found that when the above stock selection conditions are raised, the reporting rate is often far. Higher than the stocks, even if the stocks fall (such as Sinosteel), its negative reporting rate is still less than the decline of individual stocks, and even there is still a chance to get positive returns, and the annual compound interest rate of the company's interest rate is not as high as that of Juyang. However, most of the time it is higher than the one-year deposit rate of the post office. Therefore, it is necessary to have patience in investing in stocks. Carefully find potential stocks with long-term growth and be able to enter the market by sticking to the principles set in stock selection. Even if the stocks are short-term Don't panic when you are behind, keep calm and prepare for the next year to receive dividends and dividends that are much higher than the one-year deposit, waiting for the opportunity to rebound.
In addition, we can change the target price-to-earnings ratio X b /X s (multiple of the post office one-year deposit rate), which are conservative, short-lived and short-term, 7/2, 6/3 and 5/4 respectively. Comparing speculative investment attributes (as shown in the table below), it can be found that conservative investors have a relatively low loss, while short-term speculative investors may face large losses. As for profitability, the degree of profit of conservative investors The smallest, but speculative property investors are not necessarily more profitable than the health-type investors.
From the above table, it can be found again that long-term shareholding can achieve a higher real annual dividend rate for conservative investors.
Next, we will observe the changes in investment benefits with different principals:
As can be seen from the table, the total profit is not directly proportional to the investment principal. The investment of 2 million does not mean that the profit is more than twice the amount of the investment of 1 million. On the contrary, the high investment principal is subject to the risk of large losses. Low investment capital is easier to have higher personal EPS. This reflects the fact that small stocks in the stock market may have higher EPS characteristics.
Since this trial balance provides the investment entry point, the buy-and-sell target P /E ratio (X b /X s ) and the investment principal as variables, if you are interested, you can use the first investment financial notes - stock technical analysis ( a) the method described in the case of Italian stocks entered its historical data and then do several variables simulated divided according to the above analysis, will be able to have more understanding of the properties of individual stocks. if you have any questions please come up for discussion, or have left error also requested Do not hesitate to correct, more welcome everyone to share their experience. Thank you!
Next time, we will use the above P/E ratio and the change in the annual deposit rate of the post office as the main axis, supplemented by other technical indicators, in an attempt to identify a stock picking strategy with lower risk or better profit . In addition, the author analyzes stocks. The various indicators (moving average, RSI, deviation rate, KD value, William indicator, MACD and Bollinger channel, etc.) produced the EXCEL spreadsheet for readers' reference, and further produced K-line diagrams and other technical indicators. On the same chart, interested readers can refer to Ref.3. Stay tuned.
Reference (Ref):
1. Post office deposit interest rate: Post office regular deposits of less than 10 million yuan a year fixed rate historical interest rate table ( annual interest rate)
2. Yahoo Chimo stock market: basic information - Juyang , basic information - Sinosteel
3. Investment Financial Notes - Stock Technical Analysis
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