Stock Exchange and Market Analysis
Abstract: The continuation of the trading conditions (Ref.1) set by the stock technical analysis (5), in-depth discussion of the rationality of the target P/E ratio setting, sums up the setting method that can reduce the investment risk and increase the profit.
Using the trading conditions of the previous investment financial notes - Stock Technical Analysis (6) Table 1 (Ref. 2) (see the table below), we still use the sample of Ref.3 ( template7_1 ) to study the target benefits. Compared with the rationality. When the starting point of the sale and purchase is set to 2003/01/01, the target P/E ratio can be found from 2003/01/10 to 01/13 every other day, and the target price of the purchase is changed from 44.8 yen to 62.7 yen. The reason is that the post office announced that the one-year fixed deposit rate (Ref.4) has dropped from 1.4% to 1%, and from 6 times the target annual interest rate for one-year fixed interest rate, it has dropped from 8.4% to 6. %, so the target price (62.7 yen) is much higher than the closing price of the day (46 yen), resulting in the purchase of 01/03 all the way to 03/18 capital of 2 million yen in 2003. The same situation is also The next day after the occurrence of 07/29 (after interest rate) and 2008/10/29 (return of 4 yen per share of cash) to shareholders in 2004 and 2010, the target price of the purchase is still much higher than the closing price of the day. In.
Table I
Since the target P/E ratio has been deviated from the current situation and is unrealistic, the reason is that the target annual interest rate is set to be out of date. When the postal deposit rate is too low, even if there is a purchase setting of 6 times, it is not enough. Let the target annual interest rate increase to a reasonable value. The same reason also appears in the three-fold selling setting, so that the target annual interest rate is lowered too low. Therefore, the minimum value of the target annual interest rate must be introduced, regardless of the post office one-year fixed rate. In the interest rate era, the target annual interest rate must be at least above a certain level (the following table case buys at least 8%, sells at least 7%). Table 2 is based on the results of the trial calculation ( template7_2 ) , you can find not only profit From 28.49 million yen to 5.115 million yen (the time to enter the market is 2003/01/01), even the "great loss" project is much lower than the above table (-60%) (-33%). The reason It is because the target annual interest rate has set a minimum threshold and the investment risk has been lowered.
Table II
If we still have a loss of 778,000 (-33%), we can even adopt a more conservative approach, and further raise the target annual interest rate (7 times the post office one-year deposit rate and at least To be above 12%), the results calculated are listed in Table 3. For the trial calculation, please refer to ( template7_3 )
Table 3
We can find that at the time of various entry opportunities, the maximum loss under the operation of 2 million principals is only 151,000 (-12%), which is lower than the risk of the first two examples, but there is no table for profit. Second, it is so good. Even because the buying threshold is very strict, the stock price of the stocks after 01/01 in 2010 did not meet the set conditions and did not enter the record of the purchase. So this is a long-term investor who is more suitable for individuality.
Finally, we sort out the three data summaries in Table 4 and present them in three colors for the convenience of readers. The real annual interest rate ratio field allows us to understand more clearly: higher minimum annual interest rate buying conditions can be better The real annual dividend rate (such as Example 3), and the higher minimum annual interest rate selling condition, the performance of the real annual dividend rate is not good (as in the second example).
Table 4
Similarly, if the reader is interested, you can change several variables of the target annual interest rate (multiple of the one-year deposit rate of the post office and the minimum annual interest rate value), and input the desired stocks into their historical data (Ref. 5). Do a variety of variables to do simulation analysis to find out the method that best suits your investment characteristics. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask for discussion, or if you have any mistakes, please feel free to correct them. Thank you for sharing your experience. Thank you! In addition, the author analyzes stocks. The various indicators (moving average, RSI, deviation rate, KD value, William indicator, MACD and Bollinger channel, etc.) produced the EXCEL spreadsheet for readers' reference, and further produced K-line diagrams and other technical indicators. On the same chart, interested readers can refer to Ref.6. Stay tuned.
Reference (Ref):
1. Investment and financial notes - Stock technical analysis (5): set the annual reporting rate target, use Excel tools to analyze the stock investment efficiency simulation – V2.0
2. Investment and financial notes - stock technical analysis (6): set the annual reporting rate target, make good use of KD indicators to make short-term and medium-term analysis of stock investment benefits – V1.1
3. Juheng.com: Historical Data of Dunyang
4. Post Office deposit interest rate: Post office regular deposit does not reach 10 million yen a year fixed rate historical interest rate table ( annual interest rate)
5. Investment and financial notes - Stock technical analysis (1): Taiwan stock index and individual stock historical data query
6. Investment Financial Notes - Stock Technical Analysis
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